Indy 500 expert predictions: Drama, spectacle, long shots and favorites this weekend (2024)

The 108th running of the Indy 500 is here, and it should be quite the year for “the greatest spectacle in racing.” The storylines are abundant.

Team Penske claimed pole position, with Scott McLaughlin breaking the four-lap qualifying record with his average of 234.220 mph. But controversy has followed them this year after a cheating scandal involving the Indy 500 defending champion Josef Newgarden, who gave an emotional apology back in April.

It’s not just IndyCar drivers this year, either. All eyes are on NASCAR’s points leader Kyle Larson as he attempts to complete the infamous “Double” — running all laps of both the Indy 500 and the NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 on the same day. Potentially complicating his plans and contributing one more storyline to the day? Former President Donald Trump may be in attendance, which would bump up security measures at the race.

And that’s not even getting into the raucous festivities, traditions and celebrations leading up to the race. And potential weather delays.

Here to break it all down for you — and suggest some good picks in the odds — are two of our motorsports experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. Every week, we ask them our top questions heading into a NASCAR race. This week, they obliged us with answers to all our Indy 500 questions, too.

The Indy 500 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway is Sunday at 12:45 p.m. ET. You can watch on NBC and Peaco*ck.

Let’s get into it!

1. As you’ve covered here, Kyle Larson is attempting racing’s famous “Double” — racing in the Indy 500 and then the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte on the same day. You also pointed out he has a better shot than anyone before him of actually winning both. But like…how likely is it really that Larson could win the Indy 500 as a rookie?

Jeff: Personally, I think he’s way too high in the odds. If he wins it, it would be more of a “Holy cow, can you believe that happened?” rather than a “Yep, I knew it!” But either way, the mere possibility he could actually pull this off just speaks to his extreme skill level and rare ability to adapt to multiple types of vehicles. The term “generational talent” is getting thrown around a lot regarding Larson of late, but it’s quite accurate. If anyone can come over from NASCAR and win the Indy 500 in their first try, it’s him.

Jordan: There are so many nuances that are often the difference between winning and losing the Indy 500, and it’s these little things Larson lacks experience in. Factors like how to maximize restarts to pass cars when you’re bunched together or getting on and off pit road efficiently. That’s not to say Larson can’t learn throughout the race — like Fernando Alonso in 2017 or Kurt Busch in 2014 — but these are hurdles he must overcome.

2. At the Kentucky Derby, our editor Hannah spoke with last year’s Indy 500 winner Josef Newgarden and asked him to tell new racing fans what’s so great about IndyCar. He said, “IndyCar racing to me is like the cool side of the pillow: You didn’t know what you were missing until you flip that thing over. It’s the best racing on the planet.” What would you tell new fans about what makes IndyCar special — and the Indy 500 in particular?

Jeff: IndyCar has very competitive racing with stacked fields of talented drivers, and it has highly personable and affable racers who tour around on a cool schedule (Long Beach, St. Petersburg, Portland, the streets of Detroit). There are lots of Formula 1 connections for those who are fans of that type of racing (McLaren has an IndyCar team and several drivers formerly raced in F1 or F2), except it’s actually affordable and accessible for many fans. And in terms of the Indy 500 in particular, it is truly the biggest race on the planet. There’s no atmosphere in sports quite like 330,000 people jammed around a 2.5-mile track with cars going 230-plus mph. It’s truly the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing,” as advertised.

Jordan: IndyCar has an excellent product featuring a diverse schedule with many events in cool locales, a deep field where any number of drivers/teams can win, and some of the best on-track action. It’s unfortunate that more people don’t pay attention to IndyCar outside of the Indy 500 because they’re missing out.

3. Can you give us some perspective on any of the drama or behind-the-scenes stakes we should know about IndyCar this year heading into their most popular race?

Jeff: Team Penske’s three drivers swept the front row for the race, capping a tumultuous last four weeks. Penske’s Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin were found to have illegally used the “push to pass” feature earlier this season — the equivalent of opening the DRS at an unapproved time in F1 — and Newgarden had his season-opening victory at St. Pete stripped. Meanwhile, Penske suspended several key team members, including team president Tim Cindric — who would have been Newgarden’s strategist at Indy. It was made worse by the fact Roger Penske owns the IndyCar Series, so any cheating scandal from his team came off as a horrible look. Newgarden maintains he did not know the rule, but he heard some boos from fans at the Indy 500 qualifying draw on Friday.

Jordan: The Penske scandal has been the predominant storyline thus far and likely will be for the remainder of the season. And imagine the skepticism that will erupt should one of Penske’s three drivers win the 500, especially after a dominant month where they swept the front row in qualifying. But an added bonus of Larson’s double attempt is that it at least gave IndyCar another big storyline this past few weeks — and this one is far more positive.

4. Bringing back a question from last year: What is the single most important stat someone looking to place a wager on the race needs to look at? Laps led this season? Speed in the two weeks of qualifying and practice leading up to the race?

Jeff:Definitely don’t look at the rest of this season as a whole for IndyCar, because the Indy 500 is a different animal. The best thing would probably be to look at a driver’s history in the Indy 500 and then see if they have a fast car again this month. For example: The wild American driver Santino Ferrucci is five-for-five in terms of top-10 finishes in the Indy 500. Ferrucci has completed all 1,000 laps he’s run at Indy and finished third last year. Ferrucci also starts on the second row on Sunday. So that’s the type of combination you need to look for when you’re doing your research.

Jordan: What speed a driver has had in practice and qualifying is important. Unlike some races where strategy can net you a win, more often than not, winning at Indy comes down to speed and the ability to make passes.

5. What’s it like being at the Indy 500 in person? What’s your favorite tradition?

Jeff: There’s simply nothing like it. This is only my ninth 500, but if it’s up to me, I’ll never miss this race again. I love the pre-race ceremonies — “Taps,” the 21-gun salute, “Back Home Again in Indiana,” all the traditional things. You look up and down the frontstretch and it’s like a canyon with people on both sides of the track for as far as you can see, with the track bending off into the distance. It just feels massive — and it is — and everything on race day has to be experienced at least once in your life. Add it to your bucket list for sure.

Jordan: The Indy 500 is one of the best sporting events on the calendar; a true slice of Americana that nothing else compares to. Being at the track during pre-race ceremonies is incomparable; it will literally give you goosebumps. It’s an event every sports fan should have on their bucket list.

6. Who is your favorite to win the Indy 500?

Jeff: I’ll go with Alexander Rossi, just to be different and not pick one of the Penske cars. Even though they look the fastest, the Indy 500 often unfolds quite differently than practice and qualifying make it appear. Rossi, who won this race eight years ago, is a daring and fearless driver who is unafraid to make the aggressive moves needed to win. His Arrow McLaren car is perhaps the best outside of the Penskes, and his favorable track position (starting fourth) on the second row could help him stay toward the front all day.

Jordan:The Penske cars have consistently been the fastest throughout the month, including qualifying, where Scott McLaughlin led a 1-2-3 Penske sweep. So any one of the Penske teammates McLaughlin, Will Power and Newgarden are good selections. But the pick from this perspective is Newgarden, who stands a good chance to become the first repeat winner since Hélio Castroneves in 2001-02.

7. Who is a long shot you like for Sunday’s race?

Jeff: I mentioned Ferrucci earlier, but he’s not quite a long shot at +1800. It’s actually insane to me that Conor Daly is +12500. No, he didn’t qualify well this year and starts on Row 10. But his car looked fast in practice on Monday, and he posted on X: “We have a strongggg race car.” It’s not likely he’ll win from that far back in the field, but he’s also finished sixth and eighth in the past two 500s and led 20 percent of the race in the year before that. That’s pretty insane value for someone of that caliber.

Jordan: Why not Larson? Sure, he lacks experience in an Indy car, and he’ll be learning on the fly throughout the race. No doubt. But he is also unquestionably a world-class talent with a long record of doing things that otherwise seemed unlikely. And as Alonso demonstrated in 2017, it’s not completely farfetched to see a driver without Indy car experience have immediate success in their first try at racing the 500. Don’t be shocked if Larson is in the hunt on Sunday.

Odds for Indy 500 finishing position

Odds as of Thursday night via BetMGM.

(Top photo: Josef Newgarden: Jeffrey Brown / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)