When a player is drafted in 2021 and makes it to the majors three years later, that player is normally a very high draft choice. That is not the case for Joey Loperfido of the Houston Astros.
The Astros rookie was drafted in the seventh round after an outstanding four-year career at Duke. A left-handed hitter, Loperfido flew through the Astros system and made his debut with the team on April 30.
He remained with the team for about a month, getting sporadic playing time in the process, before being sent back to Triple-A Sugar Land. Since being recalled on June 21, Loperfido has received consistent playing time, hitting against both righties and lefties as it appears the Astros are finally committed to giving him a chance to play every day – or at least every day until Kyle Tucker returns from the IL.
It is time to examine why I consider Loperfido an up-and-coming dynasty player.
The Stats (as of June 27)
| YEAR | LEVEL | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-21 | NCAA | 1,090 | 200 | 52 | 186 | 69 | .281 | .377 | .496 |
| 2021 | A | 69 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1 | .116 | .276 | .261 |
| 2022 | A|A+ | 392 | 70 | 12 | 69 | 32 | .316 | .408 | .492 |
| 2023 | A+|AA|AAA | 467 | 79 | 25 | 78 | 27 | .278 | .370 | .510 |
| 2024 | AAA | 162 | 41 | 13 | 33 | 9 | .272 | .365 | .568 |
| 2024 | Astros | 55 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 2 | .309 | .367 | .418 |
Outstanding at Duke
In four years at Duke, Loperfido had a .496 slugging percentage playing against tough ACC opponents every weekend. He really put on a show during his senior season, slashing .374/.474/.612 with 12 steals. Aiding that slugging percentage were 19 doubles in 53 games as he hit only 8 home runs.
The Astros liked Loperfido’s power potential, figuring a few adjustments would help lead to more homers to go with his speed. They drafted him in the seventh round and immediately sent him to Class A, where he appeared in 19 games but struggled at the plate, slashing .116/.276/.261 with 31 strikeouts in 87 plate appearances.
Down on the Farm
Since 2022, Loperfido has been a terror against opposing pitchers.
Appearing in 82 games at Class A Fayetteville in 2022, Loperfido’s production was outstanding – .304/.399/.473 slash line with nine homers, 45 RBI, and 30 steals before being promoted to High A Asheville. All he did there was slash .354/.434/.552 with three homers and 24 RBI in 26 games.
The following season, Loperfido progressed through three different levels. He started at Asheville, playing there for 8 games before being promoted to Double A Corpus Christi. With the Hooks he slashed .296/.392/.548 with 19 homers, 57 RBI, and 20 steals in 84 games.
That performance led to his final stop of the year at Triple A. In 32 games at Sugar Land Loperfido hit five homers, drove in 16, and stole 4 bases with a .235/.333/.403 slash line. All told for the season, he slashed .278/.370/.510 with 25 homers, 78 RBI, and 27 steals in 124 games en route to being named the Astros’ Minor League Player of the Year.
Making it to the Show
There really wasn’t much of a chance for Loperfido to make the major league team coming out of spring training as the Astros had a full outfield. So he started the season at Sugar Land and continued to mash the ball. With injuries and underperforming players mounting, the Astros decided to add Loperfido to the 26-man roster at the end of April. While he didn’t get consistent playing time, Loperfido showed what he could do on the major league level during his first stint with the team.
In 14 games he slashed .333/.381/.436 with one homer, five RBI, and one steal.
After being sent down at the end of May, Loperfido was brought back up June 21 (minus a one-game recall on June 10) and has started five games. Over those five games he is slashing .250/.333/.375 with two RBI and one steal.
The Tools
- Power
There is no questioning his power. He has the ability to hit the ball out of the park no matter where the pitch is thrown. He did that here against Oakland for his first major league homer.
Since joining the Astros’ organization, Loperfido has adjusted his swing to get more loft on the ball and to tap into his power potential. While a small sample size, his 38% ground ball rate is 6.5% lower than the MLB average. His fly ball percentage of 20.6% is still three points lower than the MLB average, but he has a 41.2% line drive rate. The MLB average is 24.8%.
His Hard Hit% is currently above the MLB average and his Launch Angle Sweet Spot% is currently sitting at 52.9%, way above the MLB average of 33.1%.
- Hitting
As for his ability to hit for average, his career batting average in the minors is .281 with a .377 OBP and .496 slugging percentage. While he is currently hitting over .300 for the Astros, I expect him to fall more in line with his minor league numbers and be a .270-280 hitter. In today’s game, that is a solid batting average.
- Speed
It is Loperfido’s ability to steal bases combined with his power potential that makes him such an intriguing player.
While at Duke, Loperfido stole 41 bases in 53 attempts for a 77% success rate. He has been even better at swiping bags in the minors. In 85 attempts he has 69 steals for a success rate of 81%. With the Astros he is 2-for-2 so far in steals.
The Strikeouts
The one big knock against Loperfido is his strikeouts. The swing and miss has always been a part of his game as he has a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone, especially up in the zone like this, or under his hands, like in this instance.
At Duke, he had a 22% strikeout rate. That increased to 25% in the minors and so far with the Astros it is at 36%. The bright spot concerning the strikeouts with the Astros is that he K% was 39.5% during his first stint with the team while during this second stint (not counting his one-game recall) it is at 28%. Still high, but an improvement.
While Loperfido currently strikes out too often, he does have a good understanding of the strike zone. He had an 11% walk rate at Duke and 11.5% during his minor league career. With Houston, it is currently sitting at 6% however as he has expanded his zone too often.
The Future
Loperfido is currently getting starts in left field and right field. When Tucker returns from the IL, those starts in right will disappear for the most part. But with Chas McCormick struggling, it would not be surprising to see Loperfido get a majority of starts in left field with Yordan Alvarez being the DH.
Loperfido did get a start the other day against lefty Austin Gomber. But it wouldn’t be very shocking to see a platoon develop with McCormick and Loperfido. In the near future, I don’t see Loperfido being in the lineup every day, but probably get most of the starts against right-handed starters.
As for next year and beyond, there is every reason to believe he will be a full-time player. He can play both corner outfield spots, do an acceptable job in center, and has been getting time in the minors at first base due to the complete uncertainty at that position with the Astros right now.
At the plate, Loperfido has the ability to be a 25 to 30 homer player. That power is still developing and dependent on him cutting down his chase rate. But the ability to drive the ball out of the park is there. Add in the fact that he can steal 20 or so bases and Loperfido is a high-ceiling player with a low entry price. Right now he is available in 89% of Yahoo leagues and 97% of ESPN leagues.
If you are expecting great things from him this season, I would temper that enthusiasm. But this is dynasty baseball we are talking about here, so the future is just as important as the present, if not more important. Loperfido has a great future, so snag him now while you can.
Thanks for reading. I will be on vacation next week, so your favorite post about Up-and-Coming Dynasty Players will return July 13.
Photo credit: pscf11
